The recent rise in Bitcoin value has sparked excitement across the crypto space, with many pointing to Donald Trump’s presidential win as a major factor. However, Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, argues that Trump’s win is only a piece of the puzzle. According to Myers, the real driver behind Bitcoin’s price surge is a post-halving supply shock.
“If you’re following the Bitcoin rally, it’s easy to attribute it to the incoming Bitcoin-friendly administration,” said Myers on X (formerly Twitter) on Nov. 11. “But that’s just one element — the main story is that we are over six months post-halving.”
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Bitcoin Halving and Its Impact on Supply
In April, Bitcoin underwent its latest halving event, reducing the reward per block from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This effectively limits the supply of new Bitcoin coming to market, as miners are now rewarded with fewer coins for each new block they process. The result? A supply shock that disrupts the balance between demand and available Bitcoin. This dynamic, Myers argues, is the primary force driving up Bitcoin’s value.
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“There’s simply not enough Bitcoin available at current prices to satisfy demand,” Myers explained, emphasizing that this shortage will drive prices even higher as demand outpaces supply. He also noted that this cycle — a “post-halving bubble” — is predictable, as Bitcoin halvings historically precede market rallies. This pattern was seen in the aftermath of the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, and now it appears to be repeating in 2024.
The Role of Bitcoin ETFs and Institutional Demand
This year, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have added to the demand. On Nov. 11 alone, US Bitcoin ETFs purchased around 13,940 BTC, while only 450 BTC were mined in the same period. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs has further boosted interest from both retail and institutional investors, amplifying the scarcity-driven price momentum. This surge in demand, coupled with limited new supply, creates the ideal environment for another Bitcoin bubble.
Bitcoin’s Unique Supply Dynamics Compared to Traditional Assets
On-chain analyst James Check recently highlighted the difference between Bitcoin and traditional assets like gold. While gold has a large and constantly replenishing supply, Bitcoin’s market cap of $1.6 trillion represents an asset with a fixed supply. With approximately 94% of all Bitcoin already circulating or irretrievably lost, only about 1.2 million BTC remain to be mined. This finite supply means Bitcoin’s value is directly influenced by its scarcity, a quality shared by no other asset.
Even American financier Anthony Scaramucci recently advised investors that it’s not too late to buy Bitcoin. He predicted that the US would soon establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve, prompting other countries and institutional investors to follow suit.
Could This Be the Next Bitcoin Bubble?
Myers acknowledges that Bitcoin’s price cycle may ultimately lead to a bubble, but he notes this is simply part of the crypto’s natural evolution. “Every four years, the supply halving results in a bubble,” he said, adding that this scarcity-driven price cycle is unique to Bitcoin and continues to draw in buyers.
For crypto enthusiasts and investors alike, it’s critical to recognize the broader drivers behind Bitcoin’s rally. The supply dynamics, heightened demand from ETFs, and Bitcoin’s limited availability are converging to fuel a surge that could extend beyond Trump’s influence on the market.
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Disclaimer: The information provided in this article does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other advice, and should not be treated as such. Coin Push Crypto Alerts does not recommend buying, selling, or holding any cryptocurrency. Always conduct your due diligence and consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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