Prediction markets now assign a 52% probability to Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz following U.S. airstrikes, per Polymarket data. Such an event would disrupt 20% of global oil shipments, likely spiking energy prices and inflation. Crypto markets would face renewed pressure as investors flee risk assets amid economic uncertainty.
Historically, oil shocks correlate with crypto sell-offs due to their impact on inflation expectations and monetary policy. A blockade could force central banks to maintain restrictive policies, hurting growth-sensitive assets like cryptocurrencies. Mining economics would also suffer from higher energy costs, particularly for proof-of-work chains.
However, some traders view crypto as an inflation hedge, potentially creating conflicting pressures. The outcome would depend on blockade duration and global response. Crypto volatility would likely surge, with traders monitoring oil futures and traditional safe havens (like gold) for cues on market sentiment.
