Polymarket traders assign Donald Trump a 57% win probability versus Biden’s 35%, reflecting crypto community preferences. Trump’s pro-crypto stance, including promises to end ‘hostility’ toward digital assets and support US mining, resonates with this demographic. The contrast with Biden’s regulatory approach makes crypto markets a potential proxy for election bets.
Interestingly, another contract shows Biden winning the popular vote while losing the electoral college, highlighting the platform’s nuanced political forecasting. Such prediction markets aggregate crowd wisdom more responsively than traditional polls, though they remain vulnerable to liquidity imbalances and regulatory scrutiny.
The crypto industry views Trump’s lead as bullish for sector growth, anticipating friendlier policies like bitcoin ETF approvals and reduced enforcement actions. This sentiment could drive capital inflows into crypto assets as election momentum builds, particularly if polls maintain current trends through November.
