Bitwise’s $230K Bitcoin valuation model incorporates global money supply growth, gold’s market cap, and BTC’s technological superiority as settlement infrastructure. Their analysis assumes Bitcoin captures 20% of gold’s $12T market cap and 1% of global M2. The report emphasizes network effects from institutional custody solutions.
The target contrasts with current $108K prices, suggesting 113% upside potential. Analysts highlight Bitcoin’s 5x performance versus gold since 2020 as evidence of displacement accelerating. Their model weights store-of-value properties higher than medium-of-exchange use cases.
Critics argue the forecast ignores regulatory risks and energy debates, while supporters note it aligns with Michael Saylor’s $1M long-term target. Bitwise stresses their model uses conservative adoption assumptions, with potential upside from ETF inflows and nation-state adoption.
