JPMorgan projects the stablecoin market will reach $500 billion by 2028, significantly below some $1 trillion+ forecasts, due to anticipated regulatory constraints and competition from central bank digital currencies (CBDCs). The bank’s analysis emphasizes that current growth trajectories face headwinds from evolving compliance requirements and jurisdictional fragmentation.
The forecast accounts for potential CBDC adoption reducing demand for private stablecoins in payments and settlements. JPMorgan also notes that stablecoin usability remains limited beyond crypto trading pairs, hindering mass adoption. Regulatory clarity delays in major markets like the U.S. further temper growth expectations.
Despite this conservative outlook, JPMorgan acknowledges stablecoins’ critical role in crypto markets and cross-border payments. The projection still represents substantial growth from today’s $160 billion market, driven by institutional adoption and improved regulatory frameworks. The bank stresses that actual growth may exceed estimates if interoperability solutions advance faster than expected.
